The Opta supercomputer has predicted that Senegal will defend their Africa Cup of Nations title, while Bafana Bafana’s chances of winning the tournament were rated at just 2.1%.
This year’s AFCON, which was pushed to 2024 due to weather concerns last year, seems to be an evenly-matched tournament, with no real clear stand-out favourite, according to Opta.
Defending champions Senegal were giving a 12.8% chance to defend their title, followed by hosts Ivory Coast, who have a 12.1% chance of lifting the trophy.
Africa’s highest-ranked team, Morocco, who became the first team from the continent to reach the semi-final of a FIFA World Cup in 2022, have a chance of 11.1% of winning the tournament.
Algeria (9.7%), Egypt (8.5%) and Nigeria (8%) follow in Opta’s ranking, while Hugo Broos’ side have received a mere 2.1% chance of lifting the trophy. They sit in 12th position among Opta’s favourites to win AFCON, just like they currently sit in 12th position in the latest FIFA world rankings.
Can they do it against all odds?
Bafana’s AFCON group with Mali, Namibia and Tunisia is one of the most-evenly matched at the tournament.
Tunisia, who are the third highest-ranked African and 28th in the world, have a chance of 84.6% of making it out of the group.
They are followed by Mali with 76%, while Bafana have also been given a 66.8% chance of qualifying for the knockout stages – remember the top two from each group qualify automatically, while the four best third-placed teams also make the Last 16.
Bafana’s chance of reaching the quarter-final like they did in 2019 were calculated at 31%, while Opta’s supercomputer rates Mzansi’s chances of qualifying for the last four at 13.5%.
South Africa have only won the AFCON once, in 1996, and made the final twice (1996 & 1998), and their chances of making it for a third time were rated at 5.5%.
